Prices of homes in Toronto rose by 0.58% from September to October this year compared to 6% from August to September. The average growth in prices from September to October in the last five years is 1.12%. It is evident that price growth is reaching a plateau and prices are likely to fall in November and December as they typically do in the Toronto market.
There have been more listings in October 2017 than there has been in the last five years. At Fivewalls, we are seeing a small surge in transactions as first-time buyers try to get into the market before the new mortgage rules are implemented in January and sellers try to sell their home as they anticipate prices to decline. It seems that the new stress test in January is already having an impact as more buyers will struggle more to get a higher amount approved on their mortgages.
Sales in October grew by 12% since September and this is significant because, in 2016, they decreased by 1%. While it is not uncommon to see sales in October increasing compared to September, home sales have not experienced double-digit increases since early this year in March. The surge in home sales put Toronto in a balanced market with the sales-to-new-listings ratio at 48%.
From the online buyer and seller data that we analyze at Fivewalls, we expect that these balanced market conditions will continue and prices to stabilize then begin to decline as the implementation of the new mortgage rules come closer.