Tips & Advice, Market News
Last Updated: Jun 19, 2020
Every 3 months, Fivewalls will ask top-rated agents from different parts of Ontario to see what they predict about the direction of home prices. They will answer key questions that you may have. Where are home prices going? What will be the key influential factors in the housing market moving forward? This page will be updated as we receive new predictions for Ontario’s housing market.
Here are the predictions for July to August 2020:
Angela Baas (Kitchener-Waterloo):
“Based on the past 3 months where we have seen a decline in listings and sales, and yet prices in our area have been responding in a positive way by either selling within the list price or above. We anticipate that this will continue until the listing supply is at a normal level and more competition can take place.”
"This is a tough question, I honestly don’t think anyone knows for sure. But based on trends I am seeing, I expect there to be a pullback in the overall market in the golden horseshoe. With that said as COVID-19 has pushed a lot of companies to switch to work from home measured we are seeing a trend of more people considering leaving the city of Toronto for smaller centres where their purchasing power goes further.
Over the next three months, I think it will feel like the spring market, a lot of people have been waiting to sell once COVID-19 Shows signs of slowing down, as we are seeing Ontario open up more we are seeing more listings and sales, should be a strong summer market, but I do think there is some pain to enter the market in October when mortgage deferral end and people have to start paying back the extra interest. It’s a reminder for people buying now to have 6 months of mortgage payments set aside for a rainy day.”
“The Real Estate market is going in the right direction. 2020 had a great start, a small bump in April/May but has recovered and is back on track. Unless any unforeseen circumstances arise, home values will be on a steady rise in the fall. Lots of buyers in the market and also working from home has changed a lot of dynamics for families who now find the need for bigger homes for home office requirements and are willing to move away from downtown areas. It will be creating a lot of demand and will also be a good time for sellers to list their homes who are looking to downsize.”
Here are the predictions for April to June 2020:
“The first few weeks of March were very strong however, there was a significant drop in sales in the last few weeks. According to the Toronto Real Estate Board Market Watch, the number of sales were up 12.3% from March 2020 compared to March 2019. However, despite a strong increase in sales for March 2020 as a whole, there was a clear break in market activity between the pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 periods.
With regards to prices of homes, the MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark price was up by 11.1 per cent year-over-year in March 2020. The average selling price for March 2020 as a whole was $902,680 – up 14.5 per cent compared to March 2019. Even though the selling price took a bit of a dip from March 15 and March 31, it was $862,563 – down from the first half of March 2020, but still up by 10.5 per cent compared to the same period last year.
Since the strict provincial measures were introduced later in March, I think it is imperative that we wait for April figures as that will give us a better sense as to the trajectory of the market.
I think there will be more 'motivated' buyers and sellers in the marketplace since there were so many sales earlier this year up until mid-March and these people have to go somewhere since they have already bought or sold their homes. We may also see some buyers out there that may want to take advantage of the slower market since there would be less buyer competition, something they were experiencing the last few months as almost every listing had multiple offers. I feel that even though there may be a lower number of sales than we typically have this time of year I feel in general it will be more of a balanced market.”
“I think they will still be a seller’s market because of the low inventory levels and the existing high demand for homes.”
“COVID-19 is the largest factor that will strongly influence the Guelph real estate market throughout the rest of 2020. Since such an event has never happened before in modern times, extrapolating the impact relies heavily on informed guesswork. We predict that the number of real estate sales will plummet as homeowners decide to stay in their existing homes until things become more stable. Owners may decide to adapt or renovate instead of moving as they recover from lost income due to layoffs and sharply declining investment returns. That said, we foresee median sales prices continuing to rise modestly since buyer demand may remain stable or decline less than the number of houses listed for sale. Prospective buyers from the Greater Toronto Area will still see Guelph as an excellent and affordable place to invest their real estate dollars, and consequently will help support real estate prices. Our city may be in the unusual position to weather a real estate pricing decline due to its well-deserved reputation as an exceptional place to work, play, and raise a family – even through the global COVID-19 pandemic.”
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For more information about the impact of COVID-19 on the real estate market, we have gathered a list of frequently asked questions that get updated as the situation changes. You can find the FAQs about COVID-19 and the real estate market here.
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Disclaimer: given that the Coronavirus (COVID-19) has caused shocks to how real estate is operated, please note that the information above could change at any time given that companies are constantly updating their policies in response to the pandemic. Intended to Solicit Buyers or Sellers that are not currently under contract with another real estate brokerage.
